The cost of importing solar panels from China is likely to rise sharply as Beijing considers withdrawing export rebates on the product, a move that could directly impact Pakistan’s renewable energy sector.
According to Muhammad Faaz Diwan, Director of Diwan International Pvt Ltd, the Chinese government is expected to slash the rebate from the current 9% to zero starting October 1. “If the rebate is eliminated, solar panel prices in Pakistan could increase by up to 10%,” he told Business Recorder.
At present, a 585-watt solar panel is priced between Rs17,500 and Rs19,100, depending on brand and quality. A removal of the rebate would likely push up costs by around 9%. Diwan noted that solar panel sales in Pakistan have already slowed due to recent floods, leaving importers struggling to clear consignments at Customs and in some cases selling at a loss to avoid accumulating charges.
Inverex CEO, Muhammad Zakir Ali, echoed these concerns, warning that the price of a set of 16 panels could rise by about 9% if the rebate is withdrawn. He added that solar sales this year have remained sluggish due to political uncertainty, natural disasters, and weak consumer demand.
Industry leaders agree that Pakistan’s solar market is facing its toughest year yet. Aafaaq Ali Khan, Vice Chairman of the Pakistan Solar Association (PSA), described the situation as “a double-edged impact of reduced demand and increased supply.” He said rural markets — traditionally the backbone of solar demand — were devastated by floods, while urban markets have nearly reached saturation.
Pakistan imported 17 gigawatts of solar panels in 2024, and 12 gigawatts in the first half of 2025 alone. But much of this stock remains unsold as consumer purchasing power continues to erode. “The imposition of General Sales Tax (GST) in this year’s federal budget has further dampened demand. Overall, this is the worst scenario we’ve ever seen for the solar market,” Khan said.
Despite the grim outlook, PSA remains cautiously optimistic. Khan expressed hope that once clarity emerges on China’s rebate policy and local political conditions stabilize, the market could see signs of recovery in early 2026.
Story by Imad Uddin
